Looking to the Futures

Flows of seaborne oil rose 119,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the last month before the oil cartel starts increasing production again. The largest increases came from Brazil, Russia, and Canada, while the US and North Sea lowered their shipments. This follows up a large increase from February as producers unwind production cuts. 
Last month the cartel reduced production by 110,000 bpd. OPEC are now set to increase oil output by 138,000 bpd this month on its way to replenish 2.2 million bpd by the end of 2026. In the next few days, the oil organization will decide the next level of production output to release next month. 
Many U.S. banks are planning their pivot away from their policies that restrict which energy enterprises they can lend to. Bloomberg reported that Wells Fargo & Co. bankers have started internal conversations to end their 5-year-old policy and allow lending to projects in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Last December, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. left the world’s largest climate finance coalition for banks – the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA). Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Corp., Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Citigroup followed shortly after. After leaving the banking alliance, most of the banks returned to the list of lenders eligible to arrange Texas municipal-bond deals, which is one of the largest municipal markets. 
There are other signs the trend back towards financing oil and gas initiatives may rebound. BNP Paribas SA in France has found more willing buyers for fossil-fuel exposures this year according to a report by Bloomberg. 
The Fair Access to Banking Act is getting revived by U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer from North Dakota. Its aim is to give all legal industries equal access to financial services and lending – specifically noting how the energy producer, firearms, ammunition, crypto, and federal prison contractor industries have been excluded. Bankers interviewed by Bloomberg commented that even if the law does not change banks’ tolerances, they will need to update their underwriting policies. 
Surveyors expected crude oil inventories for the week ending last Friday to decrease slightly, but instead inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels. Total inventories are still 4% below their 5-year average for this time of the year, so the oil markets shrugged off this report and kept the upward momentum throughout the day.

Looking at crude oil futures (/CL) we can see it has stayed within the $65-$80 range over the last year. It is currently sitting right at the 50^th percentile between its 52-week high and low. The short-term trend is upward as oil closes above its 9-day moving average along with the 14-day RSI closing above its 9-day moving average.  

Initial & Continuing Claims 8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Inventories 10:30 AM ET
ISM Services PMI – Final 9:45 AM ET
Trade Balance 8:30 AM ET